This poster provides an overview on NSF Grant # CMMI-1030726 entitled “Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Seismic Risk Based on Stochastic Sampling and Focusing on Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling”, which has start date January 2011. Uncertainties in the seismic hazard parameters such the epicentral distance and intensity of future earthquake events as well as in the stochastic models used to describe the corresponding ground motion time-histories have significant impact on the calculated seismic risk for structural systems. The objective of the project is to develop a novel methodology to quantify the importance of such risk factors on the structural system performance and the design ground motion selection. To accomplish this goal, a probabilistic, simulation-based, modeling framework has been established for describing seismic risk and computationally efficient approaches are developed, based on stochastic sampling, for quantifying the influence of the uncertain model characteristics on seismic risk. The remainder of the project will involve further advancement of these tools and applications to a variety of structural systems with diverse performance definitions and with different ground motion models for characterizing the earthquake time-history. The project will ultimately provide a methodology for efficient probabilistic sensitivity analysis and for quantifying the importance of various risk factors in ground motion selection and in seismic structural design practice.
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